EXPERT INTERVIEWS – Sunday’s presidential election in Poland, and the country’s growing role in NATO, have put a fresh focus on Poland as a critical part of European efforts to defend against Russian aggression.
No European country – other than Ukraine itself – has been as directly affected by Russia’s 2022 invasion. Poland has taken the highest number of Ukrainian refugees by far; overall, nearly nine million have crossed into Poland, and three years into the war, roughly one million Ukrainian refugees remain there. The country has also faced repeated threats from Moscow; last month, Russia's foreign intelligence chief Sergey Naryshkin criticized Poland and the Baltic nations for "constantly rattling their weapons,” and warned that in the event of "aggression from NATO," those countries would be "the first to suffer."
Poland pledged recently to boost military spending, despite the fact that it already spends more as a percentage of GDP than any NATO nation (Estonia and the U.S. rank second and third), and Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has vowed to double the size of the military, including reservists. Tusk and other Polish officials have also suggested recently that the country consider positioning nuclear weapons on Polish soil.
Tusk has cited a growing threat from Russia and “a profound change of American geopolitics” as factors driving these actions. And this week, Poland's Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that those realities posed an "existential choice" for Europe. "Europeans may not like what we hear, but we cannot pretend not to hear it," Sikorski wrote in an OpEd for the Kyiv Independent. "We must be prepared for the U.S. to wash its hands not only of Ukraine, but even of Europe."
In last weekend’s election, liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski won roughly 31 percent of the vote, barely edging out populist right-wing candidate Karol Nawrocki. There will be a runoff on June 1. Both leading candidates support continued U.S. military engagement in Europe, but Trzaskowski supports deepening ties with the European Union, while Nawrocki promotes a nationalist agenda.
Former NATO Supreme Commander Gen. Philip Breedlove, who traveled to Poland last week, said the country is "really trying to decide: is America a reliable ally or not? And if they're going to have to go it alone, they're going to have to take some pretty tough measures to make sure that they can hold, should Russia do what they seem to be continuing to do."
Cipher Brief Managing Editor Tom Nagorski spoke about Poland‘s current role in European defense with Gen. Breedlove, former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, and Poland’s former National Security Advisor Jacek Siewiera. Their comments below have been edited for length and clarity.
Poland is absolutely critical to any European or transatlantic military support for Ukraine. Poland is the logistics hub. It's playing the role that the U.K. played in the liberation of Europe [during World War II]. It's absolutely essential.
For Poland, this involves geography, but Poland also has emerged as a frontier country politically because the Poles were right about Russia, and they are recognized to have been right about Russia. They're not the only ones – it’s similar in the Baltics. But Poland is the big country that was right about Russia.
And third, Poland has a serious military – arguably the most capable land force in Europe, and it will be more capable in a couple of years. The Poles are serious about this, and despite the polarized political climate in Poland, there is a national consensus about military strength. So they are a frontier European country. Their knowledge of Ukraine and their knowledge of Russia is sound. So they've emerged as a player and they've emerged as a player because Russia is a threat.
Poland is a leader among the defense and security-minded Europeans. So that would be the Baltic states, Finland, Sweden, Poland, and I think Romania too, once they get their government and new presidents sorted out, Czechia as well, as long as the current government is in place. This is a group of countries with direct experience with the Russians and strong political consensus about defense. Add to that Germany – Polish-German relations are complicated, but Germany under the new government has now recognized that they were wrong about Russia and that Poland was right.
Poland is not an equal to Germany and France, it's not quite yet in the same league economically, but it is in the same league militarily – in fact it arguably has a better military, especially ground forces, than the Germans and the British.
I don't think the Trump administration is going to pull out of NATO or withdraw from Europe entirely. But it doesn't matter what I think – if you are a Polish leader, you have to consider all contingencies, even ones with well under a 50% chance of transpiring. So a smart play is to work with the Americans, but also work with the Europeans, so that in the worst case, you're not left alone. I think that's where these calls for nuclear stationing are coming from. I don’t think those calls are the right ones at this time, but the discussion of security if the U.S. decouples from Europe is one that people have to take seriously.
I've just come from Poland. I’m now in Sofia and on my way to Bucharest. And what I'm seeing is that people are trying to think through the problem of the trade-off between current military readiness, fixing the kit that they have to be able to fight tonight, versus investment in long-term readiness, and buying the next level. And they're looking at some pretty ruthless prioritization to figure out how to do this. So there are still a couple of nations, two or three nations, that are not yet showing the appropriate movement. But Poland has certainly determined, as most capitals have determined by now, that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is not a partner, he's an enemy. He has now three times marched his army across internationally recognized borders and invaded his neighbors and we're going to have to deal with him.
Meanwhile, Poland and all these nations now are really trying to decide: is America a reliable ally or not? And if they're going to have to go it alone, they're going to have to take some pretty tough measures to make sure that they can hold, should Russia do what they seem to be continuing to do.
Poland is now joining the Baltic nations in considering the use of landmines – withdrawing from the treaty that bans their use. And it doesn't surprise me at all that Poland is now also requesting the stationing of nuclear weapons on its soil. Look at South Korea and Japan, there are now intimations out of both of those countries that they think it's time to start a nuclear program. I don't doubt that Poland would love to have us locate weapons there. Poland is going to buy the kind of aircraft that could deliver a nuclear weapon in a stealthy manner, and again, the world is sort of sitting back and watching what's going on in Ukraine and they're trying to determine: is America a reliable ally? And they're going to start taking these more drastic measures because you just can't bet your national sovereignty and existence on a hope.
Poland is kind of the anchor in the north of Europe in terms of defense. We've got a new really amazing anchor in the high North – Finland is an incredibly capable and determined nation and military, and they fought Russia to a standstill in wars like the Winter War [in 1939] and others. Now you've got Poland, which has been steadily investing for years in military capability, and taking care to improve their defenses in an important way. And I think if you look in the Black Sea in the south, you've got Romania, a nation there that's not moving as fast as others, but Romania is fast becoming an anchor in the south. But definitely in the center, Poland is the army that has the capability to inflict damage on Russia.
Deterrence is in the mind of the deterred. They know that in Poland. And clearly most people like me think of deterrence. They think of capability and credibility. I think that in the West, NATO has plenty of capability to deter Mr. Putin. I do not think the West has the credibility to deter Mr. Putin right now, and that's worrisome.
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Poland is a country which has very specific, and I would even say, extraordinary ties with the United States. These ties were very significant and strong before the [Ukraine] war started because of our military spending, because of our membership in NATO and the commitment to NATO transatlantic relations.
Having said that, it's also important to express that now, we see another chapter of this relationship with a very dynamic pace of change, which is sometimes very surprising. It's a moment in which I hope we observe the situation in which the president of the biggest allied country, our strategic partner, is trying to find a way as a businessman to navigate the opposing interests of Imperial Russia and America, as a great player on the global scene.
But what I see from the side of President [Vladimir] Putin is a behavior which is not aligned with any form of peace-seeking efforts or efforts targeted to achieve long-lasting peace in Ukraine. It's much more about outplaying and prolonging the conflict as long as possible, to strengthen the position of Russia in this prolonged war because this plays in favor and in the advantage of Russians.
From the Polish perspective, we believe that a huge level of caution is necessary when it comes to any form of deals, agreements or even statements of mutual understanding when it comes to Russia, because they don't see peace and democratic rules as an unchangeable value of our world.
I read recently a statement that President Donald Trump has done more for European defense than anyone; it is partially true because he forced Europeans to spend money on weapons. The question is if it's not too late. The mood [in terms of defense spending] hasn't changed much in Poland since the beginning of war. Now it's just getting more tangible and more precise, when it comes to the level of commitment which we have already taken. From our perspective, defense spending which was crafted by our government and the president at the level of 3.7%, and now to 4.7% with a projection that we can exceed even the level of 5% in upcoming years – this is something we perceive not as preparedness for war. We perceive it, and we want to create the message for the perception of our neighbors, that we will be ready for any form of confrontation. But we want to avoid it. As far as we invest in our defense, we believe that we are taking every necessary step to avoid war. And that's the reason, that's the justification, that's the purpose of our efforts. Particularly when it comes to defense.
We believe in three things. One, that if we in Poland will be prepared, we will deter effectively. And we mean it. So we invest in it deeply and very heavily, also with the transformation of the armed forces, civil protection and defense industry. In this third part, we also believe in cooperation with the United States, which is still a strategic ally.
The second thing which we are sure of is that we can be very effective when it comes to deterrence, when it comes to the function of NATO and the way in which NATO can counteract hostile activity from Russia.
And the third thing we believe is that Europe has to understand as a whole, that having expanded our wealth, expanded our borders, we expanded our industries and markets by attaching new members of the European Union, we also have to be aware that the European Union has to rethink how we expand responsibility of defense over the entire Europe. And Europe has to grow up and stand up to the challenge which is now posed by the Russian side, which is posed by the Kremlin and their imperialism. And I think that so far Europe has taken some interesting and very promising steps towards that.
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